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时间:2017/12/23 21:30:20  作者:  来源:  浏览:0  评论:0
内容摘要:*译注:此篇原为收费文,因未通过审核,现转为免费*Joseph HollemanCEO2011-presentStudied at University of North Carolina at Chapel HillLives in San Diego, CAAnswered ...

Joseph Holleman
Studied at University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Lives in San Diego, CA
Answered Jul 17
The greatest risk that China faces is not what it is doing internally but what is happening externally in the rest of the world.
Yes there are internal problems with China’s economy that have led to serious speculative bubbles, but based on what I have heard and read, the CCP is aware of this and is trying to take precautions for when these bubbles burst. And as Robin Daverman has very succinctly pointed out in past answers, there is a big difference when financial and economic bubbles are based on leverage provided internally as opposed to externally.
In my opinion, the biggest risk that China faces is its dependence on foreign trade to maintain the economic growth rate that keeps its populace happy and hopeful for the future. If a serious financial crash/depression should occur in the West it would likely seriously curtail the amount of international trade that China would do and severely reduce its current rate of growth.
Now the CCP does seem to be taking appropriate steps to try and transform its massive population into more of a consumer society, which would ameliorate the affects of a reduction in trade with the West. It is also making a strong effort to get Chinese businesses strongly involved with the next major consumer growth markets which are in Africa, Southeast Asia, India, and South America. And this will also serve to cushion the blow of a reduction in trade with the West.
But will that be enough soon enough? I doubt it. So yes there will likely be some severe economic blows taken by China when the worst of the next financial crisis strikes the West that could result in internal turmoil.
But I also doubt that any internal turmoil that China sees during such an event will be as deep and disruptive as it will likely be in the West.

Joseph Holleman(约瑟夫,CEO,曾就读北卡大学,住在美国加州圣地亚戈)






Larry Park
Lived in Southern California
Answered Sat
2020 ? why not just next year ? I know you ( and your friends ) can’t wait any longer to see China to collapse, you guys started posting same question since 20 years ago in hopes that China will collapse but the reality is China every since 1987 is getting better/stronger/wealthier year by year . Suggest you change question subject next time : Dad, are we there yet ? are we there yet ? are we there yet ? Hope you can see that day before you are gone

Larry Park(拉里,住在美国加州南部)

Greg Blandino, works at Beijing, China
Answered Sep 27
I don’t think any of the major economies are going to suffer an actual economic collapse ala the Soviet unx unless we get major climate change related water rise and desertification, which isn’t likely in a 10 year time frx. The main hurdles China will face over the next 10 years will be the real estate situation and zombie SOEs (State Operated Enterprises: Gubmint companies), with a possible tech bubble burst, stock market crash, and rising medical costs being smaller possible problems they will likely face.
Real estate prices have skyrocketed much faster and higher than average wages in Chinese cities. According to Property Prices Index 2017 Mid-Year, Chinese cities like Shenzhen, Hong Kong, Beijing, and Shanghai have the worst price to income ration in the world: residents of these cities don’t make enough money to buy a house. Due to the 2015 Shanghai stock market crash, there is no dependable investment option for normal Chinese people outside of real estate. At the same time, rental values are relatively low compared to the real estate price. I’m not an economist and I don’t play one on TV, but these factors seem to point to a real estate bubble where rising prices don’t reflect people’s incomes and actual rental value, but are still attracting capital due to a lack of other good options.
This creates a conflict of interests: older middle-class property owners and real estate SOEs want the prices to continue rising. Young professionals and poor people want the prices to drop. Navigating these conflicting interests will cause someone to lose, and if the prices drop this will affect the Chinese economy negatively despite having a positive social effect of making housing affordable.
The other problem that will likely arise in the next ten years is the continued ineffiency of the state owned sector. According to Greg Blandino's answer to What percentage of the Chinese economy is state-owned? two-thirds of the Chinese economy is state-owned, and these SOEs are huge but not very profitable or efficient (finance/banking SOEs aside). A lot of the unprofitable SOEs employ lots of people, especially the coal mining, petroleum, and steel producing ones.
They also create a lot of pollution and other externalized costs that make them a huge obstacle to stated goals of lowering coal usage and carbon emissions. Basically these companies are going to get squeezed if the stated plans to go green are actually implemented in real life and not just on paper, as are the communities and people reliant on them for jobs. These compnaies also suck up a lot of capital from the state-run banks, and load down their balance sheets with bad investments they have to make for political reasons.
I would say the start-up tech industries will have a 2001-like dot com bubble burst in the next decade as well, but this will strengthen the industry in my opinion by gutting the huge number of Pets.Com wannabes sucking up the good capital. If anything the danger is a repeat of the 2015 stock market crash where the government froze everything for stability’s sake. Let the pretenders die, it frees up capital for the real players. Anyways, this won’t cause an “economic collapse” (we did not revert to a hunter-gatherer existence using flint tools when went belly-up, neither will China) but it will cause some pain.
Depending on if they try to open up the stock market again without proper regulation, there might be another stock market crash. Currently it is locked down pretty tight, but they seem determined to give it another go sooner or later. I can’t see them not trying this again in the next decade, but we’ll see if they fumble it like they did last time.
Medical costs will rise and take up a larger slice of the government budget as the population ages and gets fatter, but the demographic pyramid is not going to squeeze until after this period is over, so this problem won’t come to a head in a decade long time frx. We’ll see an increase in medical costs associated with various pollution related illnesses, obesity/diabetes as KFC and company continue to make inroads into the Chinese diet, and various old-age related diseases as China continues to get older, but it’s not going to be catastrophic.

Greg Blandino(格雷格,在北京工作)








Brian Chi Zhang, Engineer at Atom Tickets
Engineer at Atom Tickets
Studied at Knox College
Lives in Los Angeles
Answered Aug 23
Answer is, to some degree, quite possibly.
But the really scary part is Chinese government has shown amazing ability to weather economic storms in recent years. The top officials for specialized government branches are often high profile industry leaders with very strong education and industry background. If any government can navigate through the unexpected, I’d put my money on the Chinese government.
When it comes to making key decisions for your country in midst of a crisis, it's really not the degree of your loyalty to the government, nor your love for your people that limits the effectiveness of your decisions, which in turn becomes policies. It's often as simple as , “doing the best I can but maybe that's still not enough”. The moment you admit this gives you a better shot at placing the most capable people you know at these key positions. It's like running a Fortune 100 company and hiring a CTO or CFO based on how your employees feel about the person, or how you feel about the person. Sure that's a factor but shouldn't you be hiring the best person you know that can get the job done well?
Meritocracy doesn't seem so bad when it comes to specialized government branches any more, does it? And no, no need to give that credit to the Comminist Party. Chinese meritocracy goes way back before that:
Modern China actually has one of the closest systems to a Meritocracy, especially when it comes to specialized government branches.
Guess my answer really was, should China stay her course, she should be able to avoid economic collapses. Those democratically elected officials that got their power by appealing to the feelings of the masses? I'm sure they mean very very well, the situation however could be described as this:

Brian Chi Zhang(张,曾就读于诺克斯大学,住在美国洛杉矶,工程师)





* 孔子相信精英政治的概念,概括起来就是“进步依赖个人能力或成就的体制”
* 孔子的其中一句论语是“获取知识、学习、成为一个更好的人”
* 在儒学的影响下,中国开始了实行科举考试。



Joseph Wang, studied at Ph.D Astronomy UT Austin, Physics MIT
Studied at Ph.D Astronomy UT Austin, Physics MIT
Lives in Hong Kong
Published WriterForbes
Answered Aug 17
If you look at politics in Hong Kong or Taiwan or for that matter all over Southeast Asia, people aren’t worried because they think China is going to collapse. On the contrary, people are scared out of their minds because they are worried that China will continue to grow and get more powerful. People are getting used to the possibility that maybe China *won’t* collapse and will continue to grow at current rates for the next several decades, and that scares the living daylights out of a lot of people.
Every day that passes, you feel China getting just a little bit stronger, and the United States getting a little bit weaker, frankly, I’m far more worried about the long term future of the US economy than I am worried about the Chinese economy.
Like everywhere else in the world, China has economic problems (i.e. you have a huge amount of debt in state owned enterprises), but every single problem that you can mention is something that the government is looking at and trying to fix, and none of the problems of the Chinese economy are things that are unfixable or particularly hard to fix.
The reason I’m less worried about the Chinese economy than the US economy is that the Chinese government has a sensible vision for the future of the Chinese economy. They are putting tons of money into solar energy, robots, AI, high speed rail, drones, big data. The universities are churning out scientists and everyone is talking about “green energy.” Also, the Chinese government is moving out the cheap labour jobs to other countries, and trying to boost incomes in Central Asia and Africa so that they can buy high tech Chinese goods.
People have been talking about a Chinese economic crisis and collapse since the 1980’s, but in turned out that it was the US and European economics that hit a crisis. The Chinese economy has weathered crisis after crisis, and there is just absolutely amazing stuff going on here. People are making money, and they are putting this money into tech in order to make more money.
It’s really, really hard for me to believe that the Chinese economy is going to collapse, when the President of China is talking about green energy and how China needs to move away from coal to solar and nuclear, and when there has been a lot of talk about “gray rhinos” as the Chinese government has been looking very careful at things that could derail Chinese growth *and doing things about them*, while in the US you have a President that doesn’t believe in global warming and is cutting back in science and technology.
People talk about CCP propaganda but when I read the propaganda, it’s all about science, technology. It’s all about working together to create a better future. It involves people working with each other to fix the problems that exist. Somewhere allow the way the pro-democracy people just lost it, and if you read that propaganda it’s all doom and gloom, let’s overthrow the CCP and replace it with …. what exactly?

Joseph Wang, (王,住在香港,曾在德州大学奥斯汀分校念天文学博士,麻省理工学院念物理学博士)






Robin Daverman, World traveler
Answered Sep 27
I don’t think there will be a significant “economic collapse” in China in the next 30 years. Unless there’s a WW III or a major US economic collapse that’s going to drag down everybody.
Here is the basic difference between the US and China’s economic structure: while the US economy is mostly a Wild West of individuals and private corporations, the Chinese one is mostly a giant man-made construction project. So when you try to predict an “economic collapse”, it is like predicting an earthquake or hurricane in the US, versus predicting an industrial accident in China. This is the most fundamental difference.
Let me ask you, who else runs their cities, provinces, countries, on performance plans with GDP targets? Nobody except the Chinese? Well, there you are. Almost all other governments are largely passengers on the ship of their economy. They didn’t build the boat, and they mostly can’t steer the boat effectively. They are just floating on it. (Well if you want a government to be incapable of interfere in the economy, it’s going to be equally incapable when the tsunami hits as well. Duh!)
If you don’t run the economy, how can you set GDP as your performance target, right? That’s like someone saying “vote for me because of good weather”. That’s why no US Presidents has ever run his campaign on “GDP growth x%” platform, because it’s out of their control, but Mr. Xi, all his provincial governors, and all his city mayors do. Not only that the Chinese run with it, but they’ve been hitting their Five-year plans of China targets every time in the last 70 years, except once (the Plan covering 1938 - 1962). It’s not just putting up a number in a speech. It’s two generations of technocrats, millions of them, who are ruthlessly effective in actually making it happen.
OK. Now that you see who drives the economic ship and who are just passengers, you see the difference when people talk about Economic Collapse of different countries. You are talking about a hurricane hitting Florida in the US-case, vs. a collapse of the construction project in the Chinese case. In the Chinese case, you need to talk with the team of the architect, the structural engineer, and the construction team, i.e., uate the effectiveness of the Chinese government. So essentially, all these talk in the Media about “China Collapse” is somewhat helpful to the Chinese government, because you are alxing the construction team of the potential danger here, and they’ll take a look and take corrective action on it, if they agree with you. Thus if you see a “collapse” of the Chinese economy, it’ll most likely be something that nobody foresees, and it’s beyond the ability of the Chinese government to take effective actions to mitigate it.
Given that the Chinese government has effective control over the pillars of the economy, i.e., the banks, transportation, energy and power infrastructure, etc., I don’t see how they can’t fix something internal. That’s why it’s most likely something external, beyond their control, that’ll cause them headaches in a distant future.

Robin Daverman(罗宾,旅行家)

美国和中国经济结构的根本不同之处在于:美国经济主要是野蛮生长的个人和私营公司,而中国经济主要是巨型人造建筑工程。所以当你试图预测一次“经济崩溃”时,就好像是预测在美国发生的一次地震或飓风 VS 预测在中国发生一次工业事故。这是最根本的不同。


好了,现在你明白谁是开船的,谁只是乘客了,当人们谈论不同国家的经济崩溃时,你会看到其中的区别。你在谈论的是:美国佛罗里达被飓风袭击 VS 中国的建筑工程倒蹋。关于中国的情况,你需要和建筑师、结构工程师团队以及建筑团队沟通,相当于是在评估中国政府的效力。所以本质上,媒体上所有关于“中国崩溃”的讨论对中国政府来说是有点帮助的,因为你在警示建筑团队这里有潜在的危险,如果他们觉得你说的对,他们会检查一下,然后采取一些纠正措施。因此如果你看到中国经济的“崩溃”,那很可能是所有人都没预见到的事情,是超出中国政府能力之外而无法采取有效行动缓解的事情。


Eric G
Lived in California
upxed Aug 7
If you are smart, you shouldn’t have such a wish.
If China collapses economically, no country on Earth can survive such a disaster. China is one of the most important players in the global economy, and is the heart of global manufacturing

Eric G(埃里克,住在美国加州)





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